This page is recording published descriptions of the chance that Y4R will impact the Earth over time.
| Date | Probability (%) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-09 | 0.14 | Sentry: Earth Impact Monitoring |
| 2025-01-13 | 0.14 | Sentry: Earth Impact Monitoring |
| 2025-01-21 | 0.52 | Sentry: Earth Impact Monitoring |
| 2025-01-30 | 1.4 | Sentry: Earth Impact Monitoring |
| 2025-02-06 | 1.9 | Sentry: Earth Impact Monitoring |
| 2025-02-13 | 2.1 | Sentry: Earth Impact Monitoring |
| 2025-02-18 | 2.6 | Sentry: Earth Impact Monitoring |
| 2025-02-19 | 3.1 | The chance of flipping a coin the same way 5 times in a row is 3.12%. |
| 2025-02-20 | 1.5 | Additional observations reduce chance. The chance of flipping a coin the same way 6 times in a row is 1.56%. |
| 2025-02-21 | 0.361 | The chance of flipping a coin the same way 9 times in a row is 0.195%. |
| 2025-02-22 | 0.361 | The chance of flipping a coin the same way 9 times in a row is 0.195%. |
| 2025-02-23 | 0.36 | The chance of flipping a coin the same way 9 times in a row is 0.195%. |
| 2025-02-24 | 0.005 | The chance of flipping a coin the same way 15 times in a row is 0.003%. |
| 2025-02-25 | 0.003 | The chance of flipping a coin the same way 16 times in a row is 0.002%. |
Chart shows impact probability trending from 0.007% on January 15, 2025 to 0.004% on January 28, 2025, with a peak of 0.015% on January 20, 2025.